December 13, 2024 - Republican states in the south receive the most federal disaster funds and would lose the most if president-elect Donald Trump cut federal disaster relief, according to an analysis of data. Some of the most climate vulnerable communities who are least resilient are located there, but continue to vote for Trump.
Texas, Florida, and Louisiana suffered the highest costs from weather and climate disasters between 1980 and 2024, according to data from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). The dataset included climate or weather disasters where overall damages and costs were estimated to reach or exceed $1 billion.
“Did you ever notice the red states get the most money or have the most disasters?” points out Craig Fugate, former FEMA administrator under the Obama Presidency. “If you look at states based upon just who gets the most disasters, and you go how much of that is in a Republican-led state where they control the legislature, Governor, you find it's interesting.”
Trump has regularly questioned the impact of climate change. Project 2025, a blueprint for his second administration offered by the conservative thinktank Heritage Foundation, recommends that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), be reformed with a “greater emphasis on federalism." Namely shifting the "majority of preparedness and response costs" to states and local authorities.
It calls for the federal government to only cover 25% in the case of smaller disasters. The proportion would then rise up to 75% for catastrophic cases, but that would be at the discretion of the executive: Trump.
Although he distanced himself from the policy paper during his election campaign, in recent days Trump has called parts of it "very conservative and very good." He has also nominated several people with ties to Project 2025 to cabinet roles.
The increasing frequency of catastrophic weather events is also a concern, draining resources and the ability to recover or plan between disasters.
Federal funding is only unlocked once local and state resources capabilities are overwhelmed. Samantha Penta, Associate Professor at the Department of Emergency Management and Homeland Security at the University at Albany is concerned that removing federal support could “leave communities and states hanging when they need help the most.”
In a measure of climate vulnerability that takes into account risk and resilience, the nonprofit Environmental Defence Fund found seven of the top 20 most vulnerable counties in the country are in Louisiana. All but one voted for Trump in 2024.
Calcasieu Parish in Louisiana was one of them. When it was hit by devastating Hurricanes Laura and Delta in 2020, it was estimated 50% of residences, or 44,000 housing units, were damaged, a report by McKinsey & Company found. That is not to mention the impact on people's lives.
FEMA provided $417 million in public assistance obligations relating to Hurricane Laura, and an additional $1.7 million for Hurricane Delta, according to analysis by Rebuild by Design, part of the Institute for Public Knowledge at New York University. They found Louisiana had the highest per capita disaster assistance in the U.S., at $2,681 per person.
Hurricane Laura was one of the strongest hurricanes to ever hit the state. But FEMA estimates Calcasieu will experience losses of $137.7 million on average each year due to natural hazards. For comparison the Parish's FY2024 budget was $357 million. State and federal disaster support is vital.
Disaster relief is just one aspect of dealing with extreme weather events. Mitigation and resilience building is needed to protect against damage in the first place. But if the next administration were to slash federal funding without these measures, “you're going to leave a lot of very poor communities extremely vulnerable,” warns Fugate.